COP29 and a climate of uncertainty

COP29 faces some big hurdles to get to the agreements it needs.

The UN climate conference kicks off this week amid serious headwinds: average global temperatures in 2024 are on track to be the highest on record, and future US support for climate action could be in serious jeopardy with the re-election of Donald Trump as president.

Extreme weather in the US, Europe, Southeast Asia and elsewhere has shown that the increasing intensity and frequency of storms, droughts, heatwaves and other events is part of a new reality. In July, the earth reached its highest temperature on record.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and enhancing carbon sinks – mitigation – is one part of climate action. Adapting to the reality of climate change by lowering exposure to its effects – extreme weather, sea-level rise and more – is another part. Both require concerted action.

The main issue on the agenda is funding. With the $US100 billion climate financing target due to expire at the end of this year, countries will need to agree on a new target – and who is going to pay.

Then there are questions to resolve around carbon markets, adaptation measures, and the loss and damage fund to help developing countries deal with the costs of climate driven disasters.

But the big question may be one that’s not on the agenda, but very much in the air: what does the future of international cooperation look like?