A golden opportunity for Australia and the Pacific

Hosting the 2026 UN climate talks would bring Australia huge benefits – economic, political and environmental – but there’s still much work to do.

An announcement about who will host the 2026 UN climate summit is expected in the next fortnight, during COP29 discussions in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Australia is in the box seat to co-host COP31 with Pacific island countries.

Looming over the talks and the future of climate action as a whole is the impending return of Donald Trump as US president. But Trump’s climate denialism – he calls climate change a hoax – is unlikely to derail the global energy transition, which is now a megatrend reshaping the world economy.

Investment is shifting inexorably from fossil fuels to clean energy technologies. A Trump presidency means Australia, and other responsible nations, will need to respond by doubling down on global climate cooperation.

Hosting COP31 would be one of the most significant diplomatic events in Australian history, and certainly the largest. Tens of thousands of delegates could be expected for a fortnight of negotiations, with satellite events held across Australia and in the Pacific islands.

Strengthening trade and diplomatic ties

As a middle power, Australia won’t be able to dominate the international scene, and it has an overriding national interest in a rules-based global order – this applies equally to trade, security and climate rules and agreements.

So if Trump tears up US climate targets and withdraws the US from the Paris Agreement – as he did previously, only for President Joe Biden to promptly rejoin – Australia has a strong national interest in pursuing responsible middle-power diplomacy to shore up global commitment to climate action – including by hosting the 2026 UN climate talks.

The event is far more than a talkfest. Hosting COP31 would be a chance to pave the way for Australia’s economic success in a world rapidly shifting from fossil fuels to clean energy and secure a place in the Pacific during a time of growing strategic rivalry. It would also be a moment to bolster global cooperation in challenging times.

Australia’s bid has gained widespread support from fellow countries in the ‘Western European and Others’ grouping at the UN – including the UK, US, Germany, France and Canada – but a suitable compromise still needs to be found with Turkiye, the other nation bidding to host the conference.

Presiding over the global climate summit would be a unique opportunity to attract investment for Australia’s green industry plans, and build the trade and diplomatic ties needed to develop new markets for clean energy goods.

To make the most of the opportunity, Australia will need to set an ambitious agenda that signals a shift from its fossil fuel past to a clean energy future.

Broad support at home

Australia’s bid has widespread domestic support.

A recent Lowy Institute poll suggests that 70 percent of Australians support hosting COP31 with Pacific island countries.

There is bipartisan support from Labor and Coalition political leaders at the level of state governments and city councils, and the bid has backing from across the community.

​​Civil society and business groups are organising to engage COP31, seeing it as an opportunity to advance clean energy industries and promote robust climate policies.

Adelaide, Brisbane, Perth, Sydney and Melbourne have their hand up to host the summit. The talks are expected to deliver a windfall for the chosen city of between $AU100 million and $210 million.

Adelaide made a formal bid to host in October, with South Australian Premier Peter Malinauskus predicting the conference could deliver more than $500 million for the state – once boosts to tourism, trade and investment are factored in.

Even while the bidding process is underway, summit preparations are being made. The federal government has allocated $70 million for climate diplomacy and summit planning, and practical arrangements are being made for COP31 staffing and logistics.

Securing Australia’s place in the Pacific

Australia aims to be the security partner of choice for Pacific island countries and has long-standing strategic interests in the region. Pacific island countries see climate change as their single greatest security threat. Island leaders view the impacts of warming — stronger cyclones, devastating floods, rising seas and dying reefs — as more tangible and immediate threats than geopolitical manoeuvring.

Co-hosting the UN climate talks would be a chance to demonstrate practical action to address the region’s core security challenge and an opportunity to celebrate Pacific climate leadership. Island diplomats have been global leaders on climate for decades, helping to secure landmark deals including the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement.

Together, Australia and the Pacific can present a shared vision for a region shifting rapidly towards clean energy. Already, 40 percent of Australia’s main electricity grid is powered by renewables and is on track for 80 percent clean energy by 2030. South Australia aims to be powered by 100 percent renewables by 2027.

A big challenge remains Australia’s fossil fuel exports. Australia is one of the world’s largest exporters of coal and gas. But energy demand is shifting in key markets, and COP31 presents a chance to develop and showcase a national plan to manage the phase out of fossil fuel production while growing new clean energy industries.

Growing trade in Asia

Demand for Australian coal and gas is projected to decline as trading partners in Asia shift to clean energy and implement policies to achieve climate goals.

Recent modelling from the CSIRO suggests Australian fossil fuel production will steadily decline and new resource exports will grow, including critical minerals, green iron, green metals and green fertiliser.

As a result, a proactive trade diplomacy agenda is needed to attract investment in clean energy industries and grow new markets for clean exports. The Climate Change Authority recommends Australia pursue new bilateral decarbonisation agreements with trading partners to “secure supply chains for essential net zero technologies and support an orderly transition away from fossil fuels”.

COP31 would be the perfect time to showcase a new generation of fit-for-purpose agreements with major trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, China and India. There are just two years to negotiate such arrangements.

Towards a future made in Australia

Hosting the world’s climate talks presents a unique opportunity for Australia and the Pacific to shine as climate leaders.

Realising this potential will require extensive collaboration.

Universities have a critical role to play in developing this agenda and delivering a successful summit. They can help maximise this moment in the international climate spotlight by bringing government, industry and the public together to shape an inclusive and ambitious COP31 agenda.

Universities are already working together to support Australian and Pacific governments to host the world’s climate summit.

A COP31 Universities Alliance has been established as a partnership between Australian and Pacific universities to coordinate the contribution of the higher education and research sector toward COP31.

A new Alliance briefing, prepared by the Institute for Climate Risk & Response at UNSW, explains how Australian and Pacific universities can help deliver a successful and ambitious UN climate summit.

Two years from now, Australia could play host to the world. It’s a golden opportunity to manage the risks and opportunities of climate change and shape global efforts to address the challenge of our times. But there’s a lot of work to do before then.

Professor Ben Newell is Director of the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response.

Dr Wesley Morgan is a Research Associate at the UNSW Institute for Climate Risk & Response.

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.