How Macron’s fall boosted Meloni’s European leadership

As Macronism faces political collapse, Meloni’s steady leadership offers Italy a chance to dominate the EU’s future.

On December 2, France’s far-right Rassemblement National (RN) party, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, filed a no-confidence motion against the government of Prime Minister Michel Barnier—the former chief EU negotiator for Brexit. The move, spurred by disputes over amendments to the budget bill, capped months of escalating tensions in French politics, putting further strain on President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership.

The no-confidence motion against Barnier followed the failure of Parliament to approve a stringent austerity budget aimed at tackling France’s deepening fiscal crisis. While the casus belli for the standoff was the contentious budget proposal, the roots of the crisis trace back to the June 2024 European Parliament elections. During that vote, the RN captured 31.37 percent of the vote, securing 30 seats and becoming the largest group in the European Parliament.

Barnier’s austerity plan, designed to save €60 billion ($US 63 billion circa) by 2025 through spending cuts and extraordinary taxes, was thwarted by a politically polarised environment. The RN joined forces with La France Insoumise, the radical left-wing party led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, to block the measures, leaving the government exposed and vulnerable.

On December 13, Macron appointed François Bayrou as France’s new prime minister, seeking to project stability amid ongoing political turmoil. The move underscored growing doubts about Macron’s ability to navigate an increasingly fractious domestic landscape.

France’s economic and financial crisis

France’s political crisis is compounded by mounting economic challenges. The collapse of the Barnier government has triggered a sharp selloff in French stocks and bonds, pushing up borrowing costs and raising concerns about the country’s financial stability. It is fair to link France’ situation to Italy’s 2011–2012 debt crisis.

France is now one of the most financially vulnerable countries in Europe, with debt and deficit steadily rising. Its deficit stands at 6.1 percent of GDP, up from 5.5 percent the previous year, while public debt has surpassed €3.2 trillion, reaching 112 percent of GDP—far exceeding the EU’s recommended thresholds of 60 percent for debt and 3 percent for deficits.

While France has long struggled with structural deficits and high debt levels, recent crises have worsened the situation. The 2008 financial crisis marked a turning point, with subsequent shocks—including the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—adding further strain. These challenges have kept debt levels elevated, leaving France increasingly exposed to financial pressures.

Despite these vulnerabilities, France retains strong international credibility, underpinned by the structural resilience of its economy. A default on financial commitments remains unlikely, and the country continues to enjoy favourable access to global credit markets.

France’s central role within the EU also serves as a stabilizing force, offering a level of protection during periods of financial distress that other nations, such as Italy during the 2011-2012 spread crisis, did not enjoy.

However, the situation in France remains fragile, and the outlook will hinge on Macron’s leadership and the new Bayrou government’s capacity to address the economy’s structural issues and tackle internal tensions with resolve and strategic foresight.

The crisis of the Paris-Berlin pair

Macron’s political standing continues to weaken, with approval ratings sliding steadily. Although he has reaffirmed his commitment to serving out his term until May 2027, doubts about his leadership persist.

Meanwhile, Germany, the EU’s economic powerhouse, is grappling with its own political and economic crises. On December 16, Chancellor Olaf Scholz lost a confidence vote in the Bundestag, prompting him to seek the dissolution of Parliament. Germany is now expected to hold snap elections on February 23, 2025.

The political turbulence in France and Germany has disrupted the traditional Franco-German axis that has long underpinned the EU, creating uncertainty at a time when the bloc faces a host of challenges, from economic stagnation to geopolitical tensions.

An opportunity for Meloni’s Italy?

The weakening of leadership in France and Germany could present Italy with an opportunity to strengthen its position, both at the international and at the domestic levels, and to bolster its influence within the EU. In contrast to its neighbours’ political turmoil, Italy’s right-wing government, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, has demonstrated a surprising degree of stability.

Over the past two years, Meloni’s coalition—comprising Fratelli d’Italia, Lega, and Forza Italia—has maintained internal cohesion, defying initial predictions of discord. While occasional disagreements have surfaced, these tensions have been managed effectively, avoiding major crises. This has happened despite the initial concerns of many analysts, who feared possible splits within the rightwing coalition.

This stability represents a marked shift for Italy, a country long plagued by frequent changes in government. The continuity offered by Meloni’s administration positions Italy as a potential anchor of reliability within a fragmented European landscape.

Strengthening ties with the US

Internationally, Italy could also benefit from closer ties with the United States, particularly following Donald Trump’s return to the White House. Meloni’s ideological alignment with Trump has fostered a strong relationship, evident in recent meetings between the two leaders (and the now “ubiquitous” Elon Musk).

For Trump, Italy could serve as a trusted ally within the EU and NATO. For Meloni, the partnership offers a chance to solidify her government’s international standing and enhance her domestic credibility.

As France and Germany grapple with political instability, Italy may emerge as a more prominent player on the European stage, leveraging its newfound stability to navigate a period of uncertainty across the continent.

Valerio Alfonso Bruno is Research Fellow at Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, where he collaborates with Polidemos (Center for the Study of Democracy and Political Change) and fellow at the Far-Right Analysis Network (FRAN). Bruno is a specialist on the Italian far-right and has recently contributed to the Routledge Handbook of Far-Right Extremism in Europe and the Handbook Non-Violent Extremism. Bruno recently co-authored the book The Rise of the Radical Right in Italy: A New Balance of Power in the Right-wing Camp (with J.F. Downes and A. Scopelliti).

Originally published under Creative Commons by 360info™.