Future warfare, same but different

Armies are getting smaller, weapons technology is getting more powerful and geopolitical tensions are all over the place.

The endgame of warfare may always be the same, but the battle space is not.

AI, big data and drone technology bring entirely new capacities to the fight — in speed, precision, stealth and surveillance.

With them emerge new vulnerabilities. Being well-prepared and well-equipped is a costly guessing game.

Even with two heavy conflicts happening, much of the world is trying to go about its business.

But that business is getting more expensive, in part because fighters from another conflict are launching attacks on container ships passing through the vital Red Sea corridor.

As the wars in Ukraine and Gaza threaten to tip into broader regional conflagrations, long-standing alliances are under strain. The US election in November is an X-factor, a fork in the road where many see very different destinies.

For Australia, a steadfast security partner to the US, the stakes are high.

Analysts are pondering the implications of a possible return of Donald Trump to the White House, not just domestically, but for what happens with China, the Middle East and other challenges.

Amid these uncertainties, military forces in many countries are dealing with strategic and structural shifts — their own and those of potential adversaries.

“America isn’t ready for the wars of the future,” declared retired US general Mark Milley and former Google CEO Eric Schmidt in a recent article. Their argument might boil down to “It’s the technology, stupid.”

They’re not the only ones worried about being wrong-footed. Last year’s Defence Strategic Review found that Australia had lost its geographic advantage and needed urgently to transform its arsenal for the ‘missile age’.

The main cause of that anxiety is China’s military buildup, which it claims is the largest by any country since World War Two.

But military spending is up everywhere — in 2023 it hit an all-time global high of $US2.4 trillion, with the US, China and Russia at the top of that list.

Meanwhile, what isn’t going up is military enlistment.

Across the Asia-Pacific, countries with rapidly ageing populations are facing a shrinking pool of military recruits. Australia is looking at a shortfall of 5,000 troops across its army, navy and air force.

In Europe, military recruiters are wondering how to attract more young people, with nearly every country on the continent failing to meet recruitment targets.

And in the US, still the most powerful military in the world, enlistment reportedly dropped nearly 60 percent between 1980 and 2020, and most branches of the armed forces keep struggling for recruits.

Enter the robots.

Kids today may be less inclined to fight for their country, but automation and AI are increasingly filling the ranks.

General Milley predicts that in 10 or 15 years, up to a third of the US military could be robotic forces controlled by AI systems.

And that is a different looking army, indeed.